Portland Metro Housing Market Update: Rates Ease, Buyers Stay Cautious (Week of October 27, 2026)

By Lauren Perreault, REALTOR®, Managing Principal Broker | Fiv Realty Co OR & WA

Mortgage rates gave buyers a little good news this week. For the third week in a row, the 30-year fixed rate came down. But if you were hoping that would bring buyers rushing back, the numbers say: not yet. For the reporting week of Monday, October 19 through Sunday, October 25, 2026, total pending sales fell to their lowest level since January, homes took longer to sell than they did a year ago, and inventory stayed near its high for the year.

Prices, meanwhile, are doing what they’ve done for more than two years now — holding steady in a narrow band. Let’s walk through the numbers, and then I’ll tell you what I think they mean for you.

Supply: Inventory Is Holding Near Its 2026 High

There were 8,453 active listings across the Portland Metro this week (Clark County in Washington plus Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas Counties in Oregon). That’s down just a hair from 8,507 last week, but up 8.4% from the same week last year, when there were 7,795.

Here’s the bigger-picture view. Inventory has hovered right around 8,500 since late summer, and this is the highest late-October active listing count in my data going back to 2021. The 12-week rolling average sits at 8,495, compared with 8,192 at this time last year — about 3.7% higher.

New listings slowed to 485, down from 504 last week and the lowest weekly count since early July. That’s still up about 20% from the 405 new listings in the same week last year — but one week can mislead. On a 12-week rolling basis, new listings are averaging 574 per week, almost identical to last year’s 580. In other words, sellers aren’t flooding the market. Homes are simply sitting longer, so the active count stays high.

A quick way to think about it: at the current 12-week pace of closings, today’s inventory would take a little over four months to sell through if no new homes were listed. That’s a far more balanced market than the one many sellers remember from a few years ago.

Demand: Pending Sales Hit Their Lowest Level Since January

This is the headline of the week. Total pending sales fell to 2,327, down from 2,372 last week and down 21.4% from 2,959 in the same week last year. That’s the lowest total pending count since January 20 of this year, and the lowest late-October pending count in my data going back to 2021.

Homes sold (closings) came in at 406, down from 417 last week and down 13.2% from 468 a year ago. That’s also the lowest late-October closing count in my data. The 12-week rolling average for closings is 467 per week, down 7% from 502 last year.

There was one bright spot. New pending sales — fresh contracts signed this week — rose to 459, up from 431 the week before. That’s still down 15.6% from the 544 we saw in the same week last year, and the 12-week average (529) is running about 13.5% below last year’s pace (612). So I’d call it a small bounce, not a turnaround.

What does it mean? Buyers are out there, but they’re picky. They have more choices than they’ve had in years, and they know it.

Pricing: Steady as She Goes

The average sale price came in at $620,588, down from $640,300 last week. The median sale price was $550,000, down from $555,000.

Compared with the same week last year, the average is up 0.9% (from $615,197) and the median is exactly flat (also $550,000 a year ago).

But I always tell people not to read too much into one week. Weekly prices bounce around based on which homes happen to close. That’s why I track the 12-week rolling average:

• Average price, 12-week rolling: $631,759 now vs. $624,750 last year (+1.1%)
• Median price, 12-week rolling: $555,367 now vs. $558,728 last year (−0.6%)

Both are within about 1% of last year. Prices have moved sideways in a tight range since mid-2024. With pending sales down and inventory up, it’s notable that prices haven’t cracked. What we’re seeing instead is that the *path* to a sale has gotten longer and more expensive for sellers who start too high — which brings us to price reductions.

Price Reductions: Fewer This Week, Still Common

807 homes cut their price this week, down from 909 last week and the lowest weekly count since early September. That’s still up about 7% from 755 in the same week last year.

Of those, 419 were reductions of $15,000 or more — just over half of all cuts. And here’s a number worth sitting with: roughly 1 in 10 active listings reduced its price in a single week.

On a 12-week basis, reductions are averaging 923 per week, about 4% higher than last year’s 888. Price cuts are a normal part of this market now. The goal is to avoid needing one in the first place.

Days on Market: The Two-Speed Market Continues

Average days on market came in at 69 days, down from 73 last week. Median days on market jumped to 40 days, up from 30. A year ago, those numbers were 60 and 33.

The 12-week rolling averages show the trend clearly:

• Average DOM, 12-week rolling: 64.1 days vs. 55.3 last year (+15.8%) — and it has risen six weeks in a row
• Median DOM, 12-week rolling: 32.7 days vs. 31.5 last year (+3.7%)

Notice the difference. The average is up much more than the median. The median tells you what’s happening to the typical home — and it’s only a little slower than last year. The average gets pulled up by homes that sit for a very long time. That gap between them is what I call the two-speed market: homes priced right still sell in about a month, while homes that start too high can sit two or three times as long.

Some people assume those slow sellers are just the expensive homes. The data doesn’t fully support that. When I cross-referenced the regional MLS area report, there was essentially no relationship between how expensive an area is and how long homes take to sell there — the priciest area, Lake Oswego/West Linn, actually had a shorter market time than several much less expensive areas. That’s not proof of what’s driving the gap, but it’s strong evidence that price level alone doesn’t explain it. Pricing accuracy — how a home is priced relative to its own local market — looks like the bigger factor.

One caution on this week: the gap between average and median narrowed to 29 days because the median jumped. One week isn’t a trend, but if the median keeps rising, that would tell us the slowdown is spreading beyond overpriced homes to more typical ones. I’ll be watching that closely.

Sale-to-List: Right-Priced Homes Still Sell at Asking

• Average sale price as a % of final asking price: 98.81% (down from 99.60% last week)
• Median sale price as a % of final asking price: 100.00% (up from 97.86%)
• Average sale price as a % of ORIGINAL asking price: 95.39% (down slightly from 95.47%)

The median home sold right at its list price. But on average, homes closed about 4.6% below their original list price. On a $550,000 home, that’s roughly $25,000 — the cost, in plain dollars, of starting too high and chasing the market down.

This ratio has drifted from the 97–98% range this spring to the mid-95s this fall. Sale-to-list tracking began in January 2026, so I don’t have a same-week-last-year comparison yet.

Mortgage Rates: Three Weeks of Relief

OnPoint Community Credit Union’s 30-year fixed rate came in at 7.000% this week, down from 7.125% last week. That’s the third straight weekly decline from the 7.375% peak in early October. The APR fell to 7.124% (from 7.226%).

One wrinkle: points rose to 0.625%, up from 0.375%. Points are upfront fees you pay to get a given rate, so a lower rate with higher points isn’t quite as big a win as the headline number suggests. That’s why the APR — which folds in those costs — fell a bit less than the rate.

To put it in real terms: on a $440,000 loan (a $550,000 home with 20% down), principal and interest at 7.000% is about $2,927 a month, compared with about $3,039 at the 7.375% peak three weeks ago. That’s about $112 a month in savings — real money, though not life-changing on its own.

Rates are still well above the low-6% range we saw in the spring. The 12-week average rate is 6.870%, so we’re still above the recent trend line.

Other Indicators

• Bumpable buyers: 96 contracts (19 in Washington) are contingent on the buyer selling another home, up from 90 last week. That’s a sign of move-up buyers who need to sell first.
• Distressed sales: About 122 bank-owned or short-sale listings are active and 128 are pending. That’s under 2% of active inventory — distressed sales are not a meaningful factor in this market.
• Cancelled and expired listings: 138 cancelled and 52 expired this week. Many of these are sellers pulling homes off the market for the winter — or after pricing too high.

My Read

Here’s how I’d sum it up. Rates are easing, prices are stable, and buyers are still cautious. That’s a combination that rewards preparation on both sides.

• If you’re buying: You have leverage you haven’t had in years. Inventory is up, competition is down, and many sellers are open to negotiating — whether that’s on price, closing costs, or a rate buydown. And rates have come down three weeks in a row. You don’t need to rush, but you also don’t need to wait for a perfect moment that may never come.
• If you’re selling: The market is not punishing homes priced correctly. The median home is still selling at full list price in about 40 days. But the market is punishing homes that start too high — with longer market times, price cuts, and an average final price about 4.6% below where they started. The single most important decision you’ll make is your list price, and it should be based on your home’s local market value, not on what a neighbor got in 2022.
• If you’re watching from the sidelines: The fall slowdown is normal. What’s different this year is the inventory level. That gives both buyers and sellers more room to plan — and planning is where I can help.

Let’s Talk Strategy

Call or text me if you want to truly understand what is happening in the Portland Metro real estate market and how various factors influence pricing. 503-683-1885 | PDXHomesforSale.com

Want to see what’s on the market right now? You can search every active MLS listing at search.pdxhomesforsale.com. And for weekly charts and video breakdowns like this one, read the full market archive at PDXHomesforSale.com or subscribe to my YouTube channel, LaurenPerreaultRealtorPDX.
Exceptional Strategy, Extraordinary Results.

Warmly,
Lauren

Lauren Perreault | REALTOR®, Managing Principal Broker | Fiv Realty Co OR & WA | Licensed in OR, WA & CA
503-683-1885 | lauren@PDXHomesforSale.com
PDXHomesforSale.com | search.pdxhomesforsale.com