Portland Metro Real Estate Market Update — Week of March 16–22, 2026
By Lauren Perreault, REALTOR — Fiv Realty Co Managing Principal Broker for Oregon & Washington Exceptional Strategy. Extraordinary Results. Portland & Vancouver Real Estate
Published March 24, 2026 | Data: RMLS / OnPoint Federal Credit Union | Washington, Multnomah, Clackamas & Clark Counties
TL;DR — Key Takeaways
This week’s data confirms a market in healthy recalibration: inventory is expanding, buyer demand is rising in parallel, prices are holding modest gains, and interest rates have moved sharply higher in just three weeks. The Portland Metro and Clark County, Washington market is offering more buying opportunity than at any point in two years — while sellers who price with precision continue to win.
- Homes sold this week: 508 vs. 420 same week last year — rolling 12-week average up +3.9% year-over-year
- Active listings: 6,088 — up +11.3% on a 12-week rolling basis, the most inventory buyers have seen in two years
- OnPoint 30-yr fixed rate: 6.25% at 0.5 pts / APR 6.354% — up 62.5 basis points in three weeks (rising)
- Avg sale-to-list ratio: 99.38% vs. 97.48% last year — sellers gaining nearly 2 full points on asking price
- March 2026 avg sale price month-to-date: $630,509 vs. $611,207 in March 2025 (+3.2%)
An Engineer Reads the Market
There’s a version of this blog post that tells you in one sentence whether it’s a good time to buy or sell. That’s not what you’ll find here — not because I don’t have an opinion, but because the data deserves more than a sound bite. Before my real estate career, I spent years in aerospace engineering and Fortune 100 manufacturing, building analytical models that had to be right because the alternative was catastrophic. I bring that same standard to this market every single week.
The primary tool I use is the 12-week rolling average. Rather than reacting to any single week of data, I calculate the average of the most recent 12 weeks and step that window forward one week at a time, comparing it to the same 12-week window from exactly one year ago. Think of it like a weather forecast using a 7-day temperature average instead of a single day’s reading — the rolling average filters out the weekly noise and gives you the underlying signal. When that signal moves consistently in one direction for several weeks in a row, the market is telling you something true.
Interest Rates: The Story Hiding in Plain Sight
Everything in residential real estate flows through the cost of money, so let’s start there. According to OnPoint Federal Credit Union, the 30-year fixed conventional rate as of the week of March 22nd is 6.25% at 0.5 points, with an APR of 6.354%. Rates are rising.
That number alone is meaningful — but here’s the context that matters: three weeks ago, that same product was at 5.625%. The prior week it was 6.00%. We have moved 62.5 basis points in less than a month. In practical terms: on a $555,000 purchase — our current median sale price — with 20% down, the loan is approximately $444,000. At 5.625%, principal and interest is roughly $2,556 per month. At 6.25%, it’s approximately $2,735. That is a $179 per month difference. For some buyers, that is the line between qualifying and not qualifying. If you are a buyer who hasn’t spoken with your lender since early March, do that today.
The 12-week rolling rate trend now shows a clear upward trajectory beginning in early March. Whether this is a sustained move or a temporary spike tied to broader economic uncertainty is a question the bond market will answer in its own time. What I can tell you is that the data right now shows a rising rate environment, and that has direct implications for both buyer purchasing power and seller pricing strategy.
| This Week | 3 Weeks Ago | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed Rate | 6.25% | 5.625% | +62.5 bps |
| Points | 0.50 | 0.50 | — |
| APR | 6.354% | 5.723% | +63.1 bps |
Inventory: The Most Important Number in the Market Right Now
Active listings this week: 6,088. On a 12-week rolling basis, we are averaging 5,713 active listings per week, compared to 5,135 at the same period last year — a +11.3% year-over-year increase. That is the largest rolling inventory gain we have seen in this market cycle.
Think of the supply side as a faucet and buyer demand as the drain on a bathtub. For much of the past several years, the faucet was barely dripping while the drain ran wide open — buyers competed for almost nothing. The faucet has been opening steadily since last fall, and the water level is finally rising. New listings this week came in at 611, and the 12-week rolling new listing average is 544 per week — up 21.0% from 449 at this same time last year. That sustained increase is the primary driver behind the inventory buildup.
For buyers, this is the most actionable data point in the entire report. You have more choices right now than at any point since early 2022. In a low-inventory market, buyers accept compromises — wrong neighborhood, wrong finishes, wrong floor plan — because they have no alternative. In an expanding inventory market, you can be selective.
| Metric | This Week | Same Week Last Year | Rolling 12-Wk YOY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 6,088 | 5,509 | +11.3% |
| New Listings | 611 | 615 | +21.0% (rolling) |
Demand: Still Growing, Not Retreating
Before anyone interprets rising inventory as evidence that buyers have left the market, let’s look at the demand side directly. New pending sales this week: 663, versus 659 at the same week last year. The 12-week rolling new pending average is 564, up +12.7% year-over-year from 501 a year ago. Total pending pipeline — all homes currently under contract — stands at 3,147 versus 2,930 a year ago. Homes sold this week: 508, versus a comparable figure of 420 last year.
Demand is not retreating. Buyers who have adapted to the current rate environment — who have recalibrated expectations and gotten their financing in order — are active. A 12.7% year-over-year increase in rolling new pending activity means more buyers are going under contract per week, on a sustained basis, than at this time last year. That is not consistent with a market in distress. It is consistent with a market where both supply and demand are expanding, with supply growing slightly faster — the definition of a healthy shift toward balance.
Price Reductions: The Market’s Price Discovery Mechanism
This week, 577 listings saw price reductions, with 260 of those being reductions of $15,000 or more. Last year at this time the comparable figure was 532. On a 12-week rolling basis, we are averaging 517 price reductions per week — up 10.8% from 467 a year ago.
When price reductions rise alongside inventory, the market is actively recalibrating asking prices to reflect what buyers in today’s rate environment are actually willing to pay. The sellers taking reductions right now are the ones who listed at yesterday’s pricing in today’s market. The smarter path — and the sale-to-list ratio data supports this — is to price correctly from day one. Homes priced at market are selling for 99 cents on the dollar. Homes that aren’t are sitting, cycling through reductions, and ultimately selling at a discount from the original ask. The market will find the right price; the only question is whether the seller controls that process or the market does it for them.
Home Prices: Modest, Durable Appreciation
Average sale price this week: $599,225 versus $592,533 last year — up 1.1%. Median sale price: $555,000 versus $542,000 — up 2.4%. On a 12-week rolling basis, the average sale price is $611,658, up 1.6% from $602,302 last year. The rolling median is $543,229 — essentially flat at -0.4% from $545,167 last year. Month-to-date for March 2026, the average sale price is $630,509 on 1,502 closings, versus $611,207 on 1,450 closings in March 2025 — a +3.2% year-over-year gain.
These numbers tell a consistent story. Prices are not falling. They are not surging. They are appreciating modestly and durably — at a rate that keeps affordability from deteriorating further while still rewarding sellers who have held equity through the higher-rate cycle. This is what a healthy, normalizing market looks like.
| Metric | This Week | Same Week Last Year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Sale Price | $599,225 | $592,533 | +1.1% |
| Median Sale Price | $555,000 | $542,000 | +2.4% |
| Avg Price 12-Wk Rolling | $611,658 | $602,302 | +1.6% |
| Median Price 12-Wk Rolling | $543,229 | $545,167 | -0.4% |
| March MTD Avg | $630,509 | $611,207 | +3.2% |
Sale-to-List Ratio: What It Actually Tells You
The average sale price as a percentage of the asking price is 99.38% this week, versus 97.48% at this same time last year — a +1.9 point improvement. The median sale-to-list ratio is 100.93%, up from 100.57% last year, meaning more than half of all homes this week sold at or above their asking price. The average sale price as a percentage of the original list price is 97.28%, nearly identical to last year’s 97.48%.
What this tells you is precise: homes priced correctly are selling for 99 to 101 cents on the dollar. Homes that are not priced correctly are getting reductions, sitting longer, and ultimately selling at a discount from the original ask. The market is not penalizing sellers broadly. It is penalizing sellers who anchor to outdated pricing. The discipline required right now is pricing discipline, not demand discipline.
Strategic note for sellers: The 1.9-point improvement in the average sale-to-list ratio is one of the most favorable seller-side signals in today’s data. When you price correctly, the market rewards you. Listings that sit are almost always a pricing problem, not a demand problem.
| Ratio | This Week | Same Week Last Year | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Sale / Asking Price | 99.38% | 97.48% | +1.90 pts |
| Median Sale / Asking Price | 100.93% | 100.57% | +0.36 pts |
| Avg Sale / Original List | 97.28% | 97.48% | -0.20 pts |
Days on Market: The Spring Acceleration Is Underway
Average days on market: 63 this week versus 71 last year — an 8-day improvement year-over-year. Median days on market: 24 versus 20 last year. On a 12-week rolling basis, average DOM is 73.4 days (up 4.2 days from 69.2 last year) and median DOM is 42.2 days (down 1.9 days from 44.1 last year). Both rolling trends have been improving consistently for the past six weeks, coinciding with normal spring market acceleration.
The disconnect between the spot average DOM (63, down 8 days YOY) and the spot median (24, up 4 days YOY) is worth explaining. The average is being pulled down by well-priced, move-in-ready properties going under contract quickly — sometimes within days of listing. The median reflects a broader market where expanded inventory gives buyers more time to evaluate. The rolling trends are the signal I trust most, and both are improving.
Additional Market Indicators
The bumpable contingency count this week stands at 79, with 23 backup offers. Bumpable listings are homes under contract that are still accepting backup offers — a measure of continued buyer engagement even after the primary contract is executed. A count near 80 is historically healthy.
On the distressed side: there are 80 active REO and short sale listings and 104 in the pending pipeline. These numbers remain very low in historical context and confirm there is no systemic financial distress driving supply. This is not 2010. Cancelled and expired listings: 103 cancellations and 31 expirations — consistent with normal seasonal patterns.
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Move-Up Households
If you are a buyer: You are operating in the most favorable inventory environment since early 2022. More listings mean more choices, more ability to negotiate on condition, and more time to make a thoughtful decision. The caveat is rates — they have moved materially in three weeks, and if you are mid-search, you need to recalibrate your budget against today’s cost of money, not last month’s. The buyers who succeed in this market are pre-approved, decisive, and realistic about pricing.
If you are a seller: The data is favorable, but it comes with a condition. The sale-to-list ratio tells you that correctly priced homes are performing well. The price reduction data tells you that incorrectly priced homes are not. That difference is almost entirely a pricing decision made on day one. If you are thinking about listing this spring, this is a favorable window — inventory is rising but demand is keeping pace, and spring market momentum is historically strong.
If you are a move-up or move-down household: The math on a simultaneous buy-sell is complex right now. On the sell side, you are likely in a good position if priced correctly. On the buy side, expanded inventory gives you more options than you’ve had in years. Talk to a lender about the real numbers before making any decisions. The data supports action for households with equity who have a genuine reason to move.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current mortgage rate in Portland for a 30-year fixed loan? As of the week of March 22, 2026, OnPoint Federal Credit Union is quoting a 30-year fixed conventional rate of 6.25% at 0.5 points, with an APR of 6.354%. That rate has risen 62.5 basis points over the prior three weeks, up from 5.625% in mid-February. Rates vary by lender, credit profile, and loan type — speak with a licensed lender for a personalized quote.
How many homes are for sale in the Portland Metro area right now? For the week ending March 22, 2026, there were 6,088 active listings across the Portland Metro and Clark County, Washington. On a 12-week rolling average basis, that is up 11.3% compared to the same period one year ago — the largest year-over-year inventory gain in the current market cycle and the most supply available to buyers in approximately two years.
What is the median home price in Portland right now? The median sale price for the week of March 16–22, 2026 was $555,000, up 2.4% from $542,000 at the same time last year. The 12-week rolling median is $543,229, essentially flat year-over-year. Month-to-date for March 2026, the average sale price is $630,509 — up 3.2% from $611,207 in March 2025.
How long does it take to sell a home in Portland right now? The average days on market for the week of March 16–22, 2026 was 63 days — down 8 days from 71 days at this same time last year. The median was 24 days. The 12-week rolling average DOM is 73.4 days, declining consistently for the past six weeks as the spring market accelerates.
Are Portland home prices dropping? No — Portland Metro home prices are not dropping. They are showing modest year-over-year appreciation. The average is up 1.1% and the median is up 2.4% versus the same week last year. March 2026 month-to-date prices are running 3.2% above March 2025 levels. Price reductions are rising, reflecting sellers in some cases adjusting from aspirational pricing — but the underlying price level remains stable.
Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market in Portland right now? The Portland Metro market is best described as balanced-to-slightly-seller-favorable, with clear pockets of buyer advantage. Inventory is at a two-year high, giving buyers more choices and negotiating room on condition. At the same time, the average sale-to-list ratio of 99.38% and median of 100.93% indicate that well-priced homes are still receiving strong offers. The market rewards precision on both sides.
Should I wait for interest rates to drop before buying a home in Portland? That is a personal financial decision best made with input from a lender and a real estate professional. Inventory is currently at a two-year high, giving buyers more options than at nearly any point in the past several years. Historically, when rates decline significantly, buyer demand surges and prices often follow. Waiting for rates to drop does not guarantee a lower purchase price. If your finances are in order and you plan to stay in the home, the expanded inventory environment right now may represent a meaningful opportunity.
Search active listings at PDXHomesforSale.net | Full weekly analysis at PDXHomesforSale.com | lauren@pdxhomesforsale.com | 503-683-1885
By Lauren Perreault, REALTOR — Fiv Realty Co Managing Principal Broker for Oregon & Washington Exceptional Strategy. Extraordinary Results. Portland & Vancouver Real Estate