Portland Metro & Clark County, WA  ·  Weekly Market Update

The Spring Market Is Here — And So Is a Rate Headwind

There’s a useful analogy for the moment we’re in right now in the Portland Metro real estate market: think of a car that’s finally accelerating after months of crawling — and then picture someone pressing lightly on the brake at the same time. The car is still moving forward. The momentum is real. But the brake matters. That’s where we are as of the week of March 9th through 15th, 2026, in Washington, Multnomah, Clackamas, and Clark counties.

On one side of the equation, spring demand is showing up unmistakably in the data. Buyer activity — measured through new pending sales, total pending contracts, and homes sold — is running ahead of last year’s pace and has been building in the rolling averages for six consecutive weeks. On the other side, mortgage rates just moved to 6.000%, up 37.5 basis points in three weeks. The market is navigating both things simultaneously.

I’m Lauren Perreault. I’ve been a Realtor for 21-plus years, I’m the managing principal broker for Fiv Realty in Oregon and Washington, and before real estate I spent years in aerospace engineering and Fortune 100 manufacturing. That background shapes how I read market data: I’m looking for trend direction and momentum, not just weekly headlines. Each week I compute 12-week rolling averages across a dozen metrics — a method that smooths out the noise so the real signal comes through. Here’s what the signal is saying this week.

Mortgage Rates: Rising, and Rising Fast

The 30-year fixed conventional rate at OnPoint Federal Credit Union this week is 6.000% with 0.375 discount points and an APR of 6.089%. Three weeks ago, that rate was 5.625%. Last week, 5.875%. This week, 6.000%. That’s a 37.5 basis point increase in 21 days.

On a $600,000 loan, the difference between 5.625% and 6.000% is approximately $215 per month in principal and interest. That changes monthly cash flow for buyers, and it changes the loan amount they can qualify for. The rate environment is a headwind right now, and it’s the variable I’m watching most closely heading into the most active buying season of the year.

Inventory: Still Elevated, But the Growth Has Stalled

Active listings in Portland Metro and Clark County this week: 6,026. Same week one year ago: 5,358. That’s a 12.5% year-over-year increase. But the 12-week rolling average tells a different story.

The 12-week rolling average for active listings is currently 5,686 homes per week, compared to 5,116 at this same point last year — about 11% more. But that rolling average peaked near 5,949 several weeks ago and has been declining since. New listings this week came in at 624 versus 615 last year — essentially flat on a weekly spot basis. On a rolling basis, new listings average 503 per week now versus 415 a year ago, about 21% above last year’s pace. Sellers are still active, but net inventory is being pulled down by the rising demand side.

Demand: Six Consecutive Weeks of Rolling Average Improvement

This is the most important data story of the week. New pending sales — homes that just went under contract — came in at 667 this week. Same week last year: 616. That’s an 8.3% year-over-year increase. More importantly, the 12-week rolling average for new pending sales is 531 per week right now, versus 484 a year ago — a 9.8% rolling improvement. And that rolling average has been rising for six consecutive weeks.

In data analysis terms, six consecutive weeks of directional movement in a rolling average is confirmation of a trend, not a coincidence. Spring demand is real and measurable. Total pending contracts stand at 3,093, which is 9.4% above last year’s 2,826. The pipeline has been rebuilding steadily since the winter slowdown. Homes sold this week: 443, versus 422 same week last year — a 5% improvement year over year.

Price Reductions: The Market’s Lie Detector

611 homes in Portland Metro had their prices reduced this week. Of those, 292 were reductions of $15,000 or more. Last year during the same week, price reductions were at 516 — this week’s figure is 18.4% higher. The 12-week rolling average on price reductions is 481 per week right now versus 434 a year ago, and that rolling average has been creeping upward for six weeks.

Price reductions are the market’s lie detector. They reveal the gap between what sellers hoped the market would pay and what buyers are actually willing to pay. Their presence does not mean prices are falling broadly — it means a subset of sellers mispriced and are now correcting. The sale-to-list ratios tell the other half of the story: the median home is selling at 100.95% of asking price, up from 100.01% last year. Correctly priced homes are winning. Overpriced homes are being corrected. Both things are true simultaneously.

Days on Market: Spring Acceleration in the Data

Average days on market this week: 66 days, versus 58 days same week last year. But look at the trend over the past month: average DOM was 84 days in mid-February, fell to 79, then 74, blipped to 75, and this week it’s 66. Median DOM has been even more dramatic: from 47 days in mid-February down to 36, 34, 30, and now 23 days — exactly matching last year’s median.

The gap between 66 days average and 23 days median is instructive. The correctly priced home is selling in 23 days — the same pace as last year. The overpriced home is dragging the average upward. The sprint to go under contract, for well-priced properties, is on.

Prices: Volatile Weekly, Positive Monthly

Average sale price this week: $613,776, versus $609,800 same week last year — up 0.7%. Median sale price this week: $525,000, versus $550,000 last year — down 4.5%. This apparent contradiction is exactly why I never rely on a single week of price data. Weekly sale prices are driven by the mix of homes that happened to close in a given 7-day window.

The number that matters on prices is the month-to-date March 2026 average: $638,652 based on 992 closed sales, compared to $615,624 in March 2025 — a 3.7% year-over-year increase on a statistically meaningful sample. Prices in this market are modestly positive year over year, properly measured. Distressed sales — REO and short sales — represent just 83 active and 102 pending properties. This is not a distress market.

What This Means for You

For sellers: Your window is opening. Demand is accelerating and inventory growth has stalled. Days on market are falling. This is the most seller-favorable momentum we’ve seen in months. But that momentum only benefits sellers who price correctly. Six hundred eleven price reductions this week are a warning to every seller who thinks they can list high and negotiate down. Buyers are informed and doing the math. Your list price is a hypothesis — the market votes on it every single day.

For buyers: The 6.000% rate is real and it matters for your monthly payment and qualification math. But buyers are not fleeing the market — the pending data proves that. Your opportunity right now lives in the homes with elevated days on market. Those sellers are motivated. You have negotiating leverage there that you do not have on freshly listed, correctly priced properties. Search active listings at PDXHomesforSale.net.

For move-up and move-down households: You are in the most complex position but also potentially the most advantaged one. You benefit from seller conditions on your current home and buyer conditions on stale inventory for your purchase. The critical step is getting your numbers done before you list. That conversation is free.

The Bottom Line

The Portland Metro market in mid-March 2026 is a tug-of-war between real spring momentum and a genuine rate headwind. The momentum is winning right now — six weeks of rising demand averages, falling days on market, and a flattening supply curve all point in the same direction. Whether rates continuing to rise reverses that momentum is the single most important question for the next 4 to 6 weeks. I’ll be watching it every week, running the rolling averages, and reporting what I see.

Data sourced from RMLS, our area’s multiple listing service. © 2026 Lauren Perreault | Fiv Realty. All rights reserved.