The Spring Pivot Is Showing Up in the Data — and It’s Early

I’m Lauren Perreault, Principal Broker at Fiv Realty, and every week I pull apart the weekly RMLS data so you don’t have to. I’ve been doing this for 21 years — and what I’ve learned is that headlines about real estate are usually a week or two behind what’s actually happening. The data moves faster than the narrative. So if you want to know what’s really going on in Washington, Multnomah, Clackamas, and Clark counties right now — you’re in the right place.

Before we get into the numbers, a quick note on methodology. I don’t lead with single-week figures, because real estate data is notoriously noisy on a week-to-week basis. Closings bunch up, schools let out, holidays distort everything. What I rely on instead are 12-week rolling averages — updated week by week going back through history. Think of it like a 90-day moving average on a stock chart. It filters out the noise and reveals the actual trend underneath, including when that trend is starting to shift. When a rolling average changes direction, that’s when I pay attention.

This week, several rolling averages are shifting at once. Here’s what I see.

Mortgage Rates: Holding Steady

The benchmark I track each week is OnPoint Federal Credit Union’s published rate sheet. This week’s 30-year fixed conventional rate is 5.625% at 0.500 points, for an APR of 5.723%. That’s the same rate we’ve had for three consecutive weeks. Rates are steady.

I know some buyers are still waiting for a return to sub-4% rates. That’s a fair hope, but the cost of that wait is worth calculating honestly. While you wait, inventory is declining. And as demand picks up into the spring, the balance of negotiating leverage shifts. Stability in rates is a feature, not a bug — it removes one variable from the equation and lets buyers focus on the property and price instead.

Active Inventory: Elevated but Declining

There are currently 5,808 active listings in the Portland Metro and Clark County area. One year ago there were 5,104. On the 12-week rolling average, we’re at 5,707 now versus 5,177 a year ago — that’s a 10.2% increase year over year on a sustained basis.

That’s the faucet side of the equation. More homes are available than last year, and more new listings are entering — 603 this week versus 456 a year ago, with the rolling average up 13.6% year over year. Sellers are entering the spring market.

The 12-week rolling average on active listings was 6,085 four weeks ago. Today it’s 5,707. That’s a decline of nearly 380 homes in four weeks on a rolling basis. The high-water mark appears to be behind us, and the trend is now pointing downward. For buyers who were relying on “plenty of inventory,” that window is shrinking.

Buyer Demand: Accelerating Into the Spring

New pending contracts — the weekly count of homes that just went under contract — came in at 637 this week. The same week last year: 520. That’s a 22.5% increase year over year on a weekly basis. On the 12-week rolling average, new pendings are at 484, up from 467 a year ago, and have risen consistently from a rolling average of 441 just four weeks ago.

Total pending contracts — the running total of everything under contract — is 2,831, versus 2,815 a year ago. Flat year over year on a weekly snapshot, but the rolling average has risen from 2,333 to 2,427 in the past four weeks. The pipeline is rebuilding. Buyers who spent the winter watching are starting to act.

Homes Sold: Flat on Trend, But Spring Is Coming

587 homes closed this week across the Portland Metro and Clark County — up from 554 at the same point last year. But the 12-week rolling average on closings is 367 per week, essentially identical to the rolling average of 367 a year ago. On a sustained basis, transaction volume is flat year over year.

What that tells me: the market has been absorbing the additional inventory at roughly the same rate as last year. The elevated supply hasn’t crashed sales volume. And with pending activity now accelerating, closings are positioned to follow in the coming weeks.

Days on Market: A Two-Part Story

The average DOM is elevated at 74 days — a 15.6% increase year over year. But here’s the more interesting data point: the median DOM peaked at 66 days a few weeks ago and has now snapped back to 34. That kind of rapid decline in the median tells me that correctly priced homes are getting traction. The homes pulling the average up are the overpriced outliers that have been sitting since fall. The market for well-positioned inventory is moving faster than the headline number suggests.

For sellers who’ve been on the market a while without results: if you’re priced right, the market is now working with you. If you’re still sitting, price is almost certainly the issue — and the data on price reductions below supports that.

Price Reductions: The Market’s Adjustment Mechanism

There were 560 price reductions in the past 7 days, including 253 reductions of $15,000 or more. That compares to 479 at the same point last year — a 16.9% increase. The 12-week rolling average on price reductions is 430, up 8.6% from 396 a year ago.

Elevated price reductions are a sign of a market that’s finding its level. Sellers who entered with optimistic pricing are recalibrating. That’s not alarming — that’s healthy market function. But it does mean two things: buyers have real opportunities in the homes that have already adjusted, and sellers who are still waiting to “find” their price should know that the market data suggests starting right is better than chasing the market down.

Sale Prices: The Median Is Holding

The divergence between average and median prices is meaningful. The average is down 1% year over year — pulled lower by upper-tier homes closing at softer prices. The median is up 0.9% — suggesting the broad middle of the market, roughly the $450,000 to $650,000 range where the majority of transactions occur, is holding its value.

The sale-to-list ratios deserve attention. A year ago, the median sale was closing at 100.01% of list — buyers paying at or above asking was the norm. Today it’s 99.24%. That shift has real implications: buyers, you no longer have to overbid as a baseline strategy. Sellers, pricing strategy matters more than it did in 2024. The era of “list it and let buyers compete the price up” is not the current market.

February’s full-month data reinforces this: the average sale price was $610,044 on 1,762 closings, versus $616,861 on 1,824 closings in February 2025 — prices down 1.1%, volume down 3.4% year over year. February was soft. But with the pending data now accelerating, March looks different.

Market Balance: 3.6 Months of Supply

Running the 12-week rolling averages of active listings and weekly closings, then converting to months, gives us a supply figure of 3.6 months. One year ago, the same calculation yielded 3.3 months.

Context: under 3 months is a seller’s market. 3 to 6 months is balanced or transitional territory. Over 6 months is a buyer’s market. At 3.6 months, we are in a balanced market with a slight lean toward buyers. That’s a meaningful difference from 2022’s sub-1-month environment — but it’s also nowhere near a buyer’s market in the traditional sense. Well-priced, well-presented homes are still selling.

Distress and Cancellation Indicators

Bumpable transactions — contingent contracts that can be displaced by a clean offer — stand at 80, slightly above the 12-week average of 74 but well below the 110-plus levels seen last fall. The downward trend in bumpables reflects improving buyer confidence and cleaner offers in the pipeline.

REO and short sales currently total 91 active and 97 pending across the metro area. These numbers are modest and show no sign of a building distressed wave. Buyers waiting for a foreclosure surge before acting should note: it’s not in the data.

Cancellations this week came in at 116 and expirations at 112 — the cancellation number is elevated relative to recent weeks and worth monitoring. One spike doesn’t make a trend, but if cancellations continue at this level, it may signal that some buyer commitments are softening or that inspection renegotiations are increasing.

What This Means for You

If You’re a Buyer

The conditions that favored you most — peak inventory, extended days on market, below-list closings — are still present, but they’re contracting. The 12-week rolling average on active listings is falling. Pending activity is accelerating 22% above last year’s pace. Median DOM is compressing rapidly. If you’ve been approved and you know what you want, the risk of waiting for “better” conditions is real. You still have negotiating leverage. Use it — but use it now, while inventory is still at 5,800 rather than 4,500.

If You’re a Seller

Pricing precision is the single most important variable in today’s market. The average home is closing at 95.65% of its original list price. The homes pulling down that average are ones that chased the market for weeks or months. If you list correctly — aligned with what the data says buyers will pay — you will sell faster and for more money than if you test the market at an aspirational price. March and April are historically the strongest selling months in this market, and the rolling data suggests we may be entering that window early this year.

If You’re Thinking About Moving Up or Down

Move-up households and right-sizers are in an unusually interesting position. You’re selling in a market that still has buyers — median prices are holding — and buying in a market where you have negotiating room that hasn’t existed in years. That combination is rare, and it won’t last indefinitely as the spring accelerates. This is worth a real conversation about timing.

The Bigger Picture

The structural story of the Portland Metro housing market hasn’t changed: decades of under-building relative to household formation has created a supply deficit that rate increases can defer but not erase. When affordability improves — even modestly — that deferred demand re-enters the market. What we may be watching in this week’s data is the earliest edge of that re-entry for the spring of 2026.

Inventory peaked. Pending activity is up. Median DOM is compressing. Rates are stable. That’s not a market in distress. That’s a market that is finding its footing and beginning to move.

Data sourced from weekly RMLS market statistics for Washington, Multnomah, Clackamas, and Clark counties. Mortgage rate data from OnPoint Federal Credit Union, effective February 20, 2026. Rolling averages are calculated using 12-week windows stepped week by week. Year-over-year comparisons use a 53-week offset per standard market analysis protocol. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Market conditions vary significantly by neighborhood, price point, and property type. Consult a licensed professional before making real estate decisions.